House and Senate Leaders Agree on Farm Bill Extension Amid Looming Government Shutdown
The proposed stopgap measure extends the farm bill through September 2024 and includes funding for 21 "orphan" programs and the Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research. Notably, dairy subsidies will be extended through December 31, 2024, to avoid the potential "dairy cliff" on January 1, where the government-guaranteed price of fresh milk would more than double.
The farm bill extension is tied to House Republicans' proposal for a two-tiered stopgap funding plan, aiming to extend current spending levels for specific government agencies and avoid a partial government shutdown after November 17. The proposed stopgap measure would extend funding for certain agencies until mid-January and others until early February.
House Speaker Mike Johnson's strategy involves withholding supplemental aid for Israel, Ukraine, or border management funding, as requested by President Joe Biden. This approach is seen as a means for House Republicans to strengthen their bargaining position in negotiations with the Senate and the White House on an emergency national security spending bill that would not be subject to the threat of a shutdown.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, however, has indicated differing opinions on the stopgap plan, with some senators considering a more conventional stopgap measure that extends spending for all agencies until January 19. The Senate has scheduled a procedural vote to advance temporary funding into January.
There is ongoing debate within the Republican ranks, with some conservatives demanding deep spending cuts. The proposed two-step plan may face challenges, and if it fails, House Republicans may turn to a full-year continuing resolution, keeping spending flat but making necessary adjustments to meet national security priorities.
The farm bill extension agreement provides a temporary solution to avoid disruptions in critical agricultural programs and maintain stability for producers. While the extension is viewed as a pragmatic approach given the current political and economic landscape, the focus remains on passing a comprehensive five-year farm bill in the coming year.
In the longer term, the likelihood of passing a new farm bill is examined in the context of the Ag Economists' Monthly Monitor, indicating that it might not be until 2025 before Congress passes a new farm bill. The survey of economists highlights factors such as the 2024 election year, overall legislative dysfunction, funding issues, competing priorities, and limited legislative time as hurdles for expeditiously passing a new farm bill. With farm income in a relatively healthy state and the political climate in Washington, there appears to be a lack of urgency to pass a new farm bill, especially with 2024 being an election year.
