In 2020, the consumption of dairy products increased by 13.7 kg per capita - Mikhail Mishchenko
According to the expert, the growth is largely due to the closure of borders and the fact that tourists stayed at home.
‘According to UN statistics, in 2019, Russian tourists spent $ 34.5 billion abroad or 2 trillion 233 billion rubles. At the same time, in 2020, because of the pandemic, everyone stayed in Russia,’ he said. ‘As a result, we have a fairly high price and serious demand. The food market in general and the dairy market in particular, as well as the tourism industry, are now observing an increase in sales. The year 2020 was successful in terms of sales thanks to those people who did not go abroad. According to our estimates, the market volume has grown to 25 million tons, that is, by about 2 million tons. We can see this very well in the production of products and in the demand for raw milk.
Mikhail Mishchenko also cited several scenarios for the development of the dairy market in Russia until 2030.
‘The first is production. The most optimistic scenario, since today production is growing by 4-5 and even 6% per year. If this continues, we will really reach 31 million tons of milk,’ he said. ‘The next scenario is also optimistic and shows quite serious growth. The pessimistic scenario also shows serious growth. Only a pessimistic scenario, where coups and other events are assumed to happen in the country, gives a drop to the level of 2013.
According to the expert, the main factor of consumption in our country is the decline in the population.
‘But even a negative scenario will lead to the fact that we will have a surplus of dairy products. We have a large agricultural country that can produce a huge number of products,’ the expert added.
According to him, local shifts play a big role.
‘A lot of people talk about a drop in consumer demand. Even though tourists can spend money at home, I was sure that our consumption is not falling, but is being redistributed. This is evident from a number of factors. For example, the volume of processed milk in our country is growing at the same rate as consumption. The consumer with a low income refuses milk, but chooses not cheaper but other types of products: bread, buckwheat, potatoes and so on,’ Mikhail Mishchenko noted.
He added that the consumer has become less interested in cheese products. In 2020, the consumption of this product increased, but due to the tourists who stayed in the country, as well as due to the fact that the main consumer of the cheese product is HoReCa. Since July 2020, all Russian hotels have been overcrowded, which also affected the demand for the cheese product.
‘The cheese category is again becoming a product for pleasure. People who considered cheese as a product for daily consumption are leaving. Companies that have failed to adapt production to the new requirements are leaving the market. We have a number of examples – these are small local companies that are beginning to compete with large enterprises,’ summed up the director of the Dairy Intelligence Agency.
