FAO: butter exports to decrease by 2% to 1 million tons in 2021
He noted that unresolved customs clearance issues continue to hinder trade flows between the United Kingdom and the European Union. In other countries, the decline is due to high export prices, logistical difficulties and economic downturns.
‘On the contrary, an increase in import purchases is forecast for China, the Philippines, the Republic of Korea and Canada. Despite the expected decline in global butter trade, China's imports are likely to be 21% higher than last year, setting a new record of 176 thousand tons, mainly due to increased consumer demand. The imports of the Republic of Korea are also expected to increase in 2021 as diets become more Western and domestic butter production declines. In Canada, consumer demand for butter continued to grow amid rising demand for pastries and home cooking, which led to an increase in butter imports by more than 18%. However, purchases from the Russian Federation may decrease by 1.5% due to an increase in world prices and currency devaluation,’ Maxim Fasteev wrote.
The expert also noted that in terms of exports, it is expected that most of the decline in global butter trade will reflect a significant decline in butter supplies from several leading exporters.
‘Mainly from New Zealand, Great Britain and Uruguay. Due to a decrease in the supply of raw materials to the EU, butter exports may fall by 13%, or by more than 40 thousand tons, to a level of just over 271 thousand tons. It is expected that in New Zealand, the volume of butter production will decrease in 2021, given that milk production in the current season will be lower than expected, and operators prefer to direct the available milk for production of whole milk powder,’ Maxim Fasteev concluded.
In the context of the current global supply and demand, exports from the USA, Argentina and Australia are expected to grow significantly. The United States is likely to benefit from increased purchases from Canada and some countries in the Middle East and Asia. Mexico's butter imports from the United States also increased from January to September, although the total butter imports of the country decreased by almost 50% during the same period. Argentina may ship more butter due to higher demand, despite a possible decline from some traditional trading partners, including the Russian Federation. In Australia, exports are expected to grow by 66.5% due to high demand for imports, especially from China. In Belarus, for nine months there was a decrease in butter purchases from the Russian Federation compared to 2020, but the Russian direction was offset by an increase in exports to other countries, especially to Ukraine.
