Expected Milk Prices for Farmers in Córdoba and Sucre in Early 2025
In 2024, the formal trade of raw cow milk in Córdoba and Sucre recorded a decline, marking the second consecutive year of drop in industrial collection, according to the Observatory of Prices and Agricultural Costs (OPCA).
Milk Production Data
Milk production in Córdoba reached 444 million liters, with 25% consumed or processed within the same productive unit, leaving a market supply of 333 million liters. In Sucre, production was 220 million liters with a 28% internal consumption, resulting in a supply of 158 million liters.
Industrial Collection Decline
The total milk supply saw the dairy industry purchasing 56 million liters, a 9.4% decrease from the previous year. Córdoba accounted for 78% of this volume (44 million liters), and Sucre contributed the remaining 22% (12 million liters).
Over the past three years in Córdoba, industrial collection decreased from 55 million liters in 2022 to 44 million liters in 2024. Conversely, Sucre saw an increase in the same period.
In 2024, the dairy industry's purchase coverage was 13% in Córdoba and 8% in Sucre, with most milk supplied to cheesemakers and dairy producers outside current sanitary guidelines and price framework.
Price Behavior
The nominal average price of raw milk with bonuses in Córdoba fell from $2.174 in 2023 to $1.879 in 2024. In contrast, the price without bonuses increased from $1.575 to $1.710.
A similar pattern occurred in Sucre: the price with bonuses dropped from $2.086 to $1.899, while the price without bonuses rose from $1.521 to $1.663.
The farm-reported price by DANE also contracted in both departments, falling from $1.952 to $1.779 in Córdoba and from $2.019 to $1.747 in Sucre. Similar trends were observed for premium and non-premium prices nationwide.
Predictions for 2025
According to econometric models from OPCA, the farm price in Córdoba will rise until March 2025, peaking at $1.857, then decline between April and June. In Sucre, prices are expected to increase until February, reaching $1.684, before dropping from March through June.
Overall, 2024 saw a reduction in formal milk trade in Córdoba and Sucre, with lower industrial collection and bonused price declines, indicating a crisis in the primary dairy chain link. Forecasts for 2025 suggest a partial price recovery amidst market uncertainty.
