Andrey Dakhnovich: In 2021, the import of butter was significantly lower than the standard import in previous years
The expert said that the hot summer period reduced the total fat content of milk produced in the country - this, in turn, led to a decrease in butter production in the middle of summer. The import of imported butter was significantly lower than the standard import in previous years, because importers did not see a good return on sales of imported butter and reduced orders. In addition, there was probably a good demand for milk cream in the summer season, which was used for production of ice cream and cream cheeses, which also reduced the volume of butter production.
‘All this has led to a shortage of butter in the autumn season. This factor and the increase in the cost of milk contributed to a sharp rise in the price of butter. From July to November, it went up by 100 rubles per 1 kg,’ comments Andrey Dakhnovich.
At the same time, he noted that sales are growing not due to deficit, but due to demand:
‘Sales of those who have a stock of goods can grow due to the deficit. In addition, total sales in short supply can easily fall, because the price is rising and demand is decreasing. I am not ready to assess the demand in the butter market. I don't know.’
The forecast for the segment is as follows: butter may rise in price by another 30-50 rubles over the next six months. After Easter, closer to summer, most likely the cost of butter will decrease by 50-70 rubles relative to its maximum cost in March-April, Andrey Dakhnovich added.